Odds?

So guys, I'm a level 9 monk in 5E, so i can attack 4 times in one round. I thought everyone might get a chuckle at this... Enjoy my misery :)

Yep this really happend right now 10 minutes ago in our game guys, we were seriously amazed.

LoL!

Is that four Natural 1's in a row, rolled on a d20? I believe the odds of that are 1 in 160,000. With the quantity of players on this site, this is bound to happen to someone, from time to time. Too bad it was your Monk today! If I've got the probability math right, for every 160,000 times that any Player rolled 4 d20's in a row (and your Monk probably rolled a bunch of these sets of 4d20 today), odds are there would be 1 Player's set of rolls that came up with all 4 Natural 1's.

All probability aside... was your monk drunk at the time? That is some seriously unfortunately rolling, congratulations on not blaming the dice engine for your monk's ineptitude though ;)

Technically they weren't in a row... there were other d20 rolls and other sized rolls in between, but still. What a run of luck.

The bunch of us were laughing our butts off. I was not drunk but I was recently afflicted by a magic mushroom creature. Lesser restoration was used but we still blamed it as a side effect.

HoneyBadger said: Technically they weren't in a row... there were other d20 rolls and other sized rolls in between, but still. What a run of luck. This actually doesn't affect probability though. It's true they are not 4 in a row, but it's 4 specific rolls, whether they are in a row or not, it's 4 out of 4 specific predetermined d20 rolls that rolled all 1's. The probability of "those 4" all being 1's is the same probability as any 4 in a row doing so.

It doesn't affect the probability of four specific rolls coming out 1, but it does illustrate that they weren't four specific rolls. The human brain is designed to see patterns, so it will do so. If the 1's at been the four in the right column, a human brain would also see the "four-in-a-row" pattern there. Same thing if any two adjacent rows had come up with both rolls 1. Same thing if any of that had happened the previous time the macro was run. The odds, given all that, are much more arithmetically interesting, but probably wind up in the neighborhood of 0.1 to 0.01%. Still nothing to sneeze at, but not quite the 1-in-160k longshot it would be if the four rolls had been specified beforehand.