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Dice Rolling

I don't know where to post this, it has no use but perhaps you had a similar situation and we could make one post to share them ! I think the chances of this happening are 1 in 1million but I'm not sure and I would be happy to know how to calculate it =D Good Games to everyone !
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Edited 1559862810
keithcurtis
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Nice! Of course, the chances of rolling any three numbers is one in a million, but it's certainly eerie to see.
If anyone ever rolls six 18s for a character rollup, they are wasting their time here, they should be at a casino.  10,077,695 to 1 against , that would wear out a few mice...
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keithcurtis
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al e. said: If anyone ever rolls six 18s for a character rollup, they are wasting their time here, they should be at a casino.  10,077,695 to 1 against , that would wear out a few mice... If every registered user account would roll up 3 characters... :D
keithcurtis said: al e. said: If anyone ever rolls six 18s for a character rollup, they are wasting their time here, they should be at a casino.  10,077,695 to 1 against , that would wear out a few mice... If every registered user account would roll up 3 characters... :D Each roll is 10,077,695 to 1, the dice have no memory. Have you heard of the Monte Carlo Fallacy?
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Edited 1559871029
GiGs
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The chance of rolling 3 78s in a row is 1 in a million, but it's not as simple as that. There's nothing special about the number 78: if you'd rolled three 55s you'd have had the same reaction, or three 10s, three 99s, etc. So There are 100 numbers it could have been, therefore there is a 1-in-10,000 chance of rolling the same number three times in a row. But thats only true if you roll exactly three times, and make no more rolls. If you play on roll20 for several months, and roll a couple of dozen times each session, totalling (for convenience) 100 rolls, and at some point during that, you have three consecutive rolls that are the same number, you'd have the same reaction. So, the chance of that happening to you , in this described situation is now maybe 1-in-100. The final complication is: how many active users are on roll20, playing over many months or years? The chance of this happening to someone   over the years of roll20s existence is virtually guaranteed.  Sorry to be a killjoy! i too would like to see bizarre lucky sequences others have experienced. In fact I witnessed this exact sequence many years ago in a face to face game. During character design, one of my players made a roll for a special talent, and rolled 100. that gave them an opportunity for a second roll, which was also a 100. I was the GM, and he was my brother, so to mess with him, I pretended I hadn't seen the first roll, and asked him to reroll it. And he rolled another 100. The sequence became a legend talked about in my group for years.
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Edited 1559877923
keithcurtis
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al e. said: keithcurtis said: al e. said: If anyone ever rolls six 18s for a character rollup, they are wasting their time here, they should be at a casino.  10,077,695 to 1 against , that would wear out a few mice... If every registered user account would roll up 3 characters... :D Each roll is 10,077,695 to 1, the dice have no memory. Have you heard of the Monte Carlo Fallacy? We are making jokes, though. ;) How is it different from the Gambler's Fallacy? Edit: Ah same thing, different name.
GiGs said: The chance of rolling 3 78s in a row is 1 in a million, but it's not as simple as that. There's nothing special about the number 78: if you'd rolled three 55s you'd have had the same reaction, or three 10s, three 99s, etc. So There are 100 numbers it could have been, therefore there is a 1-in-10,000 chance of rolling the same number three times in a row. But thats only true if you roll exactly three times, and make no more rolls. If you play on roll20 for several months, and roll a couple of dozen times each session, totalling (for convenience) 100 rolls, and at some point during that, you have three consecutive rolls that are the same number, you'd have the same reaction. So, the chance of that happening to you , in this described situation is now maybe 1-in-100. The final complication is: how many active users are on roll20, playing over many months or years? The chance of this happening to someone   over the years of roll20s existence is virtually guaranteed.  Sorry to be a killjoy! i too would like to see bizarre lucky sequences others have experienced. In fact I witnessed this exact sequence many years ago in a face to face game. During character design, one of my players made a roll for a special talent, and rolled 100. that gave them an opportunity for a second roll, which was also a 100. I was the GM, and he was my brother, so to mess with him, I pretended I hadn't seen the first roll, and asked him to reroll it. And he rolled another 100. The sequence became a legend talked about in my group for years. No worries ! I played Roll20 for a long time so I knew that in my lifetime I will see crazy things. It's just the first time it actually happened in a game and our GM likes this kind of thing, as this is a special event I will get some kind of reward in the game ! If I could I would have use this 3 rolls on lottery al e. ^.^ It's sad we need to use money, at least it's a win in my heart !