I outlined the process for each option above. As far as I can see using selected is either the same amount of clicks or less, never more. If you believe there is a case where it is more clicks let me know.
Also see Selected or target macro?
EDIT: It is actually a 3 step process if you think in the old process as you'll click the save, and then the token, and then the save. This cost is outweighed by #1 and #2 above.
For this, I don't see how it is a three step as it is click save and then token never the save again.
For the points
1) Players almost never have their token selected unless they roll init myself included. I have seen many new players only select their token when editing HP as they don't deal with token actions and even I only have it selected as long as I need for a token action to output everything I need in chat and then deselect so I don't feel that players will always have their token selected.
2) Problems with layers could happen regardless as a selected token may be the top one and you have to adjust to select the right one with selected or target.
3) For clarity, I have never seen a player have problem with "click the button then your character" but always see people mess up or forget to do it with "select your token then click" which is the reason I use a global token action for initiative because it was too common of an error and it wasted time.
In general, yes it comes down to 2 clicks vs 2 clicks but I find the
- People can forget to have their token selected, cause it to increase to 3 clicks.
- Accidentally click off it causing it to increase in clicks
- It is easier to understand for new players/new roll20 players
So I find selected will cause the the same or an increased number of clicks in general due to these common errors that I can say even I do at times with just forgetting to have a token selected which is why I avoid it as much as possible in custom macros and try to use target instead if it isn't that bad of an efficiency cost.